The commercial construction market is sending a mixed but encouraging message for 2026 and 2027. While some sectors are slowing, others are poised for significant growth. For NTCA members and professional tile contractors, understanding where that activity is happening can help inform business development, workforce planning, training priorities, and the types of projects contractors pursue.
According to BLD Marketing’s 2026-2027 Mid-Year Commercial Construction Market Forecast, which draws on the American Institute of Architects’ July 2026 Consensus Construction Forecast along with insights from FMI Corp. and U.S. Census construction spending data, commercial construction overall is projected to grow 4.8% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027. Nonresidential construction as a whole is forecast to decline slightly by 0.3% this year before returning to 3.0% growth in 2027.
The takeaway is clear: the market is not moving in one direction. Opportunities will increasingly depend on knowing which sectors are growing and adapting to the changing demands within them.
Data centers lead the way
The most dramatic growth forecast belongs to data centers. The AIA Consensus Forecast projects growth of 33% in 2026, followed by another 24.7% in 2027. The report also notes that data center construction spending has already increased significantly, reflecting continued investment in this rapidly expanding segment.
For tile contractors, data centers may not immediately appear to be a traditional target market. However, the growth of these facilities creates opportunities throughout the construction ecosystem. These projects often operate on demanding schedules, and the report identifies prefabricated and modular construction as an increasingly important strategy for accelerating delivery.
That emphasis on speed and efficiency is worth watching. Contractors who can demonstrate strong project management, reliable labor capacity, technical expertise, and the ability to work within complex schedules may be better positioned as project teams look for dependable specialty trades.
Office construction shows unexpected strength
Despite ongoing challenges in portions of the office market, the forecast projects office construction growth of 9.6% in 2026 and 9.2% in 2027. The report makes an important distinction between struggling Class B and C properties and premium Class A buildings, where demand remains strong as employers seek to attract workers back to the office with better locations, amenities, and overall experiences.
This creates an opportunity for contractors focused on high-end commercial interiors. Premium office environments can involve sophisticated finishes, feature walls, large-format materials, porcelain panels, and carefully detailed installations. It also reinforces the value of staying current with evolving installation methods and materials.
At the same time, the challenges facing older office properties may create opportunities through renovation, repositioning and conversion projects. Contractors should pay attention not only to new construction, but also to how existing buildings are being adapted for new uses.
Healthcare, hospitality and recreation offer steady potential
Several other sectors show solid growth projections. Healthcare is forecast to grow 2.6% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, while hotels are projected to increase 4.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Amusement and recreation construction is expected to grow 7.1% this year and 3.0% next year.
Each of these markets has characteristics that make quality installation especially important. Healthcare facilities are increasingly focused on creating warmer, more comfortable spaces for patients and staff. Hotels continue to demand durable, attractive finishes that can withstand heavy use. Entertainment and recreation projects often rely on distinctive design elements to create immersive guest experiences.
These are markets where tile’s versatility, durability, and design potential can be particularly valuable. For contractors, they may also require specialized knowledge of performance requirements, substrates, waterproofing, and increasingly complex specifications.
Not every market is growing
The report also provides an important reminder that contractors should avoid relying too heavily on broad construction headlines. Manufacturing is projected to decline 11.6% in 2026 and another 0.6% in 2027. Warehouses are forecast to decline 1.7% this year before returning to modest 1.4% growth in 2027. Retail and other commercial construction is projected to grow only 0.7% in 2026, although growth improves to 2.7% in 2027.
Still, slower growth does not mean there are no opportunities. Manufacturing, warehouse, and retail projects are changing. Automation is reshaping warehouse design, while retail centers are increasingly anchored by fitness, medical and wellness uses rather than traditional department stores.
What this means for tile contractors
Perhaps the most important lesson from the forecast is the need for strategic flexibility. The strongest opportunities may come from sectors that are expanding, but success will also depend on understanding how those buildings are changing.
For NTCA members, that makes education and technical expertise even more valuable. As commercial projects become more specialized, contractors need the skills to work with new materials, changing specifications and increasingly demanding schedules. They also need the business knowledge to identify promising markets and build relationships with the right owners, developers, architects, and general contractors.
The 2026-2027 forecast offers reasons for optimism, particularly in offices, data centers, healthcare, hospitality, and recreation. It also suggests that the commercial market will reward contractors who look beyond the overall numbers and focus on where the next opportunities are being built.
For professional tile contractors, the question is not simply whether commercial construction is growing. It is where it is growing, what those projects require and whether your company is ready to compete for them. For access to the full report, click here.
